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#BRAZILIAN PENSION REFORM - Roda Viva | Paulo Tafner | 22/04/2019


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Roda Viva (Cultura TV Program) | Paulo Tafner | 04/22/2019


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Roda Viva interviews Professor Paulo Tafner, one of the leading specialists in social security in Brazil. He will answer questions related to the Reform, such as the pros and cons of the proposal, the ideal minimum age for men and women, and how changes can contribute to improving the economic scenario and help in the fight against unemployment. They compose the bench of interviewers André Lahoz Mendonça de Barros, editorial director of Exame magazine; Alvaro Gribel, an economics reporter for the newspaper O Globo; Raquel Landim, special reporter for the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo; Denise Campos de Toledo, an economic commentator for TV Gazeta and Jovem Pan radio; José Roberto Ferreira Savoia, Professor of Finance at FEA-USP. With presentation by Ricardo Lessa and cartun drawings by the cartoonist Paulo Caruso. Follow Roda Viva on social networks! Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/rodaviva Follow Culture TV: - Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/tvcultura - Twitter: https://twitter.com/tvcultura - Instagram: https: / /www.instagram.com/tvcultura - G +: https://plus.google.com/+tvcultura

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SOURCE/LINK: https://youtu.be/BDLqm5wCaBE



CGTN's Rachelle Akuffo  - Paulo Sotero discusses Brazil's long-awaited pension bill and other economic reforms


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CGTN's Rachelle Akuffo spoke to Paulo Sotero about Brazil's long-awaited pension bill and other economic reforms.

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SOURCE/LINK: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-economy-finmin/brazils-guedes-sees-favorable-surprise-on-pension-reform-in-60-days-idUSKCN1ST2LR




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May 23, 2019 / 5:14 PM / a month ago
Brazil's Guedes sees 'favorable surprise' on pension reform in 60 days
Lais Martins
2 Min Read
    • 
    • Brazil's Economy Minister Paulo Guedes speaks during a seminar about pension reform bill in Brasilia, Brazil May 22, 2019. REUTERS/Adriano Machado/File Photo
SAO PAULO (Reuters) - Brazil’s Economy Minister Paulo Guedes said on Thursday he was confident pension reform would be approved in the next 60-90 days, and that it would pack a sufficient fiscal punch. 
“We believe it will be approved, and that in 60 days there will be a favorable surprise in the Senate,” Guedes said at an event in Sao Paulo. A climate of collaboration among the political class has replaced the one of division and distrust of recent months, he noted. 
“I’m optimistic, I think that in 60 to 90 days this will be passed and we will push ahead with an extraordinarily positive agenda,” he said. 

Some Congressional sources, however, say the government remains well short of the 308 votes required in the lower house to even take it up to the Senate, meaning final approval could be several months away. 
The bill making its way through the Congress is a sweeping package of measures, including raising the minimum retirement age and increasing workers contributions, which aims to generate savings of 1.237 trillion reais ($306 billion) over the next decade. 
The government and many economists say this is vital to boosting investor, consumer and business sentiment, and bringing Brazil’s lackluster economy back to life. 

Doubts over President Jair Bolsonaro’s main economic reform are likely to have contributed to the economy shrinking in the first quarter, the first contraction since 2016. The government cut its 2019 growth forecast this week to 1.6% from 2.2%, but even that is above the market consensus of around 1.2%. 
But Guedes said these forecasts will be revised up again in two to three months, the same timetable he predicted for pension reform approval. 
He said once pension reform is approved, boosting private investment will become the economic “battle front.” Guedes also said Brazil is staying out of the U.S.-China trade spat, and that Brazil will negotiate with both countries. 
Reporting by Lais Martins; Writing by Jamie McGeever; Editing by Tom Brown and Richard Chang
Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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SOURCE/LINK: https://panampost.com/david-unsworth/2019/06/17/bolsonaro-and-guedes-fight-to-reform-brazils-unsustainable-pension-system/

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    • Bolsonaro and Guedes Fight to Reform Brazil’s Unsustainable Pension System
Bolsonaro and Guedes Fight to Reform Brazil’s Unsustainable Pension System
In Brazil, it is typical to retire at 55, with 70% of your salary for life...unfortunately this pension model is entirely unsustainable.
EconomicsBrazilColumnists
By David Unsworth Last updated Jun 17, 2019 
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Paulo Guedes has made pension reform a top priority in Brazil (Globo). 
Jair Bolsonaro and friends realize that the state of Brazil’s public finances is precarious, and that is putting it mildly. Stabilizing the Latin American giant’s public finances is of pivotal importance to ensuring economic growth in the future. To that end, Bolsonaro placed the utmost faith in Paulo Guedes…that rare classical liberal economist who holds the reigns of power on the South American continent.
Despite the highly visible decline of the “Pink Tide” and the departure of many key leftist and socialist leaders from office, at the hands of the voters, public spending remains a serious problem. Brazil and Argentina are prime examples of this. The situation is so perilous in Brazil, that public spending is projected to reach 90% of GDP this year. That is potentially catastrophic.
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Consider that in Brazil, retiring at the age of 55, and then collecting 70% of your salary for life, is considered the norm. Unions and left-wing political parties want to maintain the status quo, and they are taking to the streets of Brazil in an attempt to force Bolsonaro to shelve the controversial pension reform.
For workers in the vast majority of the world’s nations, they could only dream of the prospect of retiring at 55. A part of the reason that this is possible is that under the current pension system, men can retire after they have contributed into the system for 35 years. For women that figure is 30 years.
So, a Brazilian woman could conceivably enter the workforce at 18, work for 30 years, and then retire at 48.
It sounds great, right? Who wouldn’t want to retire at 48?
A quick perusal of the numbers, however, soon leads us to a favorite word we routinely hear from the left: unsustainable.
The average life expectancy of a Brazilian woman is 79. Under the current system a Brazilian woman can work for 30 years, and then collect benefits for 31 years, if she merely enters the labor force upon becoming an adult, and lives to an average age.
Brazil, without question or doubt, enjoys one of the most generous social security regimens in the entire world. Unfortunately, it is entirely unsustainable, and it is the main reason that Brazil is hemorrhaging money.
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In a sign of the highly biased coverage the story is receiving from the international media, an Al-Jazeera article entitled “Work until you die, or die working” paints a hilariously inaccurate picture of Brazil’s supposedly downtrodden workers. The “great injustices” supposedly visited upon them by the maniacally evil Bolsonaro and Guedes would still offer them a more generous package than workers in the vast majority of the developed world enjoy.
Bolsonaro and Guedes are calling for raising the retirement age to 65 for men and women. Teachers, on the other hand, could retire much sooner: 60 for men, and 57 for women. It hardly sounds draconian.
Furthermore, like the Social Security Administration in the United States, Brazil is not taking in enough money from current workers to pay for benefits for its retirees. It is a ticking time bomb. It is a Ponzi scheme on its last legs as i t stands now.
And yes…it is very, very “unsustainable.”
Bolsonaro’s initially more ambitious reform hoped to save 1.3 trillion reales, but the current iteration of the proposal is likely to be watered down to around 1 trillion reales (around USD $250 billion) in savings over the next decade.
For a nation of 200 million people, saving USD $25 billion a year in pension costs is hardly draconian austerity. But it is a start.
Bolsonaro has a fractious situation on hands with Congress, where many recognize the urgency of pension reform, but are unprepared to make unpopular decisions that might anger their constituents.
One of the key principles of “Socialism of the 21st Century” was the concept of “living well.” Lula, Dilma, and their cronies at the Workers Party spent like drunken sailors for decades, without a care in the world as to how ruinous and devastating Brazil’s entirely unsustainable pension system would be for public finances.
Now, Brazil’s chickens are coming home to roost.
Let’s hope that Bolsonaro and Guedes can win over the moderates in Congress. Without serious reform, Brazil’s unsustainable pension system will continue to be the proverbial millstone around Brazil’s neck.

David Unsworth 283 posts 0 comments 
David Unsworth is a Boston native. He received degrees in History and Political Science from Washington University in St. Louis, and subsequently spent five years working in real estate development in New York City. Currently he resides in Bogota, Colombia, where he is involved in the tourism industry. In his free time he enjoys singing in rock bands, travelling throughout Latin America, and studying Portuguese.
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SOURCE / LINK: https://youtu.be/tGvSrO8khbU



Roda Viva | Paulo Tafner | 22/04/2019


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O Roda Viva entrevista o professor Paulo Tafner, um dos maiores especialistas em Previdência no País. Ele irá responder perguntas relacionadas à Reforma, como os prós e contras da proposta, a idade mínima ideal para homens e mulheres e como as mudanças podem contribuir para melhorar o cenário econômico e auxiliar no combate ao desemprego. Compõem a bancada de entrevistadores André Lahoz Mendonça de Barros, diretor editorial da revista Exame; Alvaro Gribel, repórter de economia do jornal O Globo; Raquel Landim, repórter especial do jornal Folha de S.Paulo; Denise Campos de Toledo, comentarista de economia da TV Gazeta e da rádio Jovem Pan; José Roberto Ferreira Savoia, professor de Finanças da FEA-USP. Com apresentação de Ricardo Lessa e desenhos do cartunista Paulo Caruso. Siga o Roda Viva nas redes sociais! Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/rodaviva Siga a TV Cultura: - Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/tvcultura - Twitter: https://twitter.com/tvcultura - Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tvcultura - G+: https://plus.google.com/+tvcultura

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SOURCE/LINK:https://www.infomoney.com.br/mercados/noticia/7909716/paulo-tafner-um-dos-maiores-especialistas-em-previdencia-do-pais-sera-colunista-do-infomoney-


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Por Equipe InfoMoney Em mercados  05 fev, 2019 16h58 
Paulo Tafner, um dos maiores especialistas em previdência do país, será colunista do InfoMoney 
Tafner também foi um dos coordenadores de uma ampla proposta de reforma da Previdência entregue ao novo governo no fim de 2018. Suas colunas começam a ser publicadas em fevereiro

(Rep) 

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    • Alíquota previdenciária máxima só atingiria 0,08% dos servidores públicos 
No fim de 2018, o governo recém-eleito recebeu uma ampla proposta de reforma da Previdência. O projeto previa, entre outros pontos, a unificação de todo o sistema atual de aposentadorias (INSS, servidores públicos etc.) e a criação de uma idade mínima de 65 anos, tanto para homens quanto para mulheres. Resultado previsto: uma economia de 1,3 trilhão de reais 10 anos.
A iniciativa de fazer a proposta foi comandada por Arminio Fraga, ex-presidente do Banco Central, e a elaboração técnica foi coordenada pelo economista Paulo Tafner, um dos maiores especialistas do país em previdência -- e que, a partir deste mês, começará a escrever colunas para o InfoMoney.
Doutor em ciência política e pesquisador da Fundação Instituto de Pesquisas Econômicas (Fipe), Tafner é autor de estudos e livros sobre o tema. O livro mais recente é Reforma da previdência: por que o Brasil não pode esperar?, escrito em conjunto com Pedro Nery.
Nas colunas de Tafner no InfoMoney, você poderá acompanhar suas análises sobre os desafios e problemas da Previdência Social, as propostas de reforma em discussão e os impactos sobre as contas públicas e sobre a aposentadoria de cada um, entre outros assuntos.  
Conte com diferentes opções de investimento para a aposentadoria: abra uma conta gratuita na XP. 
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